US Inflation Is Set to Back Fed Pause After Robust Jobs Data


US Inflation Is Set to Back Fed Pause After Robust Jobs Data

Wednesday's CPI report will be followed a day later by December retail sales numbers, which are expected to confirm robust spending during the holiday season.

Meantime, Fed data on Friday may indicate manufacturing is stabilizing, albeit at a depressed level. Economists project a 0.2% gain in December factory output, in line with November's advance -- the first back-to-back increase since February-March.

In Canada, US President-elect Trump's threatened tariffs will be the overriding focus, with outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau convening provincial premiers to discuss responses and Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson visiting Washington in a last-ditch bid to avert the crisis.

Elsewhere, UK inflation data will draw attention after a week of market ructions, while China and Germany release economic growth numbers.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what's coming up in the global economy.

Asia

The week brings trade figures from across the region, providing a snapshot of commerce at the end of 2024 before any potential tariffs are announced by the US. The flow of data from China continues, with key economic readings including gross domestic product late in the week.

The region's biggest economy will be the main focus, kicking off with trade balance and export data for December, with analysts expecting to see activity remaining firm as global customers placed orders ahead of potential US levies.

India, Indonesia and Singapore also release trade figures, while South Korea supplies trade price data which should provide an indication of demand.

In central banking, South Korea officials are expected to cut the main lending rate for the third time in a row. The economic outlook there has dimmed amid political turmoil, slowing domestic demand and expectations of a slide in exports, which drive growth.

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino speaks Tuesday, and wages rising at the fastest pace in three decades could clear the way for further rate hikes. Indonesia's central bank also announces its latest rate decision after holding at the prior meeting.

China caps the week with a slew of data. Home prices likely continued their slide -- though perhaps at a slower pace. Industrial production probably held firm and retail sales accelerated on the back of stimulus measures. GDP is set to show the economy managed to hit the "around 5%" annual growth target for 2024, something President Xi Jinping already announced at the end of December.

Amid the deluge, Australia releases a number of labor market figures and joins Thailand in providing a look at consumer confidence. Malaysia reports advance GDP, which is expected to show a slower fourth quarter. And Indian consumer prices are seen weakening slightly.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

The UK will take the spotlight again after a week when a global bond selloff threatened to upend the Labour government's whole approach to the public finances.

With consumer-price gains deemed by investors to be persistent, data for December on Wednesday will draw attention. Inflation probably accelerated slightly further above the Bank of England's 2% goal, to 2.7%, though the gauge focusing on services may show slowing.

Given the market backdrop, any BOE remarks will be closely monitored. Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden is scheduled to speak on Tuesday with fellow policymaker Alan Taylor on the calendar for the following day.

In Europe's other current fiscal hotspot, France, Prime Minister Francois Bayrou will lay out his policy agenda to parliament on Tuesday, including details on the budget.

Data on Wednesday in Germany will probably confirm a second consecutive annual contraction in 2024. It's also the first hint from within the G-7 of its performance in the final quarter of the year.

Euro-zone numbers include industrial production on Wednesday and a final reading of inflation on Friday. A few European Central Bank appearances are scheduled, including Vice President Luis de Guindos and chief economist Philip Lane, while the account of the Dec. 11-12 monetary-policy meeting is down for Thursday.

Two rate decisions are scheduled:

Further afield, several consumer-price reports will be published on Wednesday:

Latin America

Brazilian inflation and rate expectations will likely push higher in the central bank's weekly survey. Local analysts have marked up their year-end 2025 forecasts for the two metrics by 40 basis points and 150 basis points, respectively, in just four weeks.

Markets are pricing in a year-end key rate that's roughly 100 basis points higher than economists. The central bank next meets Jan. 28-29.

The week also sees Argentina release December inflation data that's expected to show the annual print slowing for an eighth month to just under 120%, after peaking at almost 290% in April. Economists surveyed by the central bank see it ending 2025 at 25.9% before declining further to 15.3% in 2026 and 10% in 2027.

With the December monthly inflation figure likely in line with previous months, President Javier Milei has vowed to slow the pace of the peso's crawling peg to 1% a month from 2%.

Brazil's piping-hot economy looks to finally be cooling under the weight of tight financial conditions, with the central bank expected to push borrowing costs up higher still.

Month-on-month GDP-proxy figures for November may turn negative as the year-on-year reading drops from October's 7.31% pace.

--With assistance from Katia Dmitrieva, Laura Dhillon Kane, Vince Golle, Monique Vanek, Robert Jameson, Piotr Skolimowski, Paul Wallace and Greg Sullivan.

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