With Shohei Ohtani now in the National League, one Houston Astro can challenge Judge.
The Houston Astros have lost considerable talent this offseason, most notably third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker. Despite their absence in the heart of the order, the Astros still have enough firepower to be a factor in the American League.
Right in the middle of that is Yordan Alvarez, Houston's power hitting DH. Alvarez will turn 28-years-old in June, yet he's already established himself as one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball. He's hit 103 home runs over the last three years, with a combined 16.8 bWAR during that span. He slashed .308/ .392/ .567 in 2024, where his OPS and slugging percentage were actually a bit down from each of his two previous campaigns.
He's already a premium hitter and he's in his prime years, which means that a career year in 2025 is very much on the table. If he swells beyond what has become his current standard of performance, he has a shot to be this year's American League MVP.
Thankfully for American League MVP-caliber stars, Shohei Ohtani is now in the National League. When Ohtani is pitching, no one short of Babe Ruth himself can really be compared to the Los Angeles Dodgers' unicorn. Ohtani, who has won three MVPs in the last four years, including two in the American League, is a nearly insurmountable object in the MVP race as long as he stays healthy.
Even with Ohtani's absence in the American League, there is still New York Yankees' captain and reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge to contend with. Judge and Ohtani have combined to win each of the last four AL MVPs. During Judge's MVP seasons, he finished with a 10.5 bWAR in 2022 and a 10.8 bWAR last year.
To this point Alvarez's single-season max bWAR is 6.8, which came in 2022. On the surface that means for him to truly contend in this year's AL MVP race, he's going to need a leap while Judge slides some.
Judge and Ohtani have set a very high bar over the last four years, but before that stretch several AL MVPs finished with bWARs in the mid to high sevens. Alvarez played in just 135 games during his peak 2022 campaign, so it's very reasonable that he can land in that range.
Alvarez also has age on his side, as he's 28 while Judge will turn 33-years-old in late April. Judge also only played in 106 games in 2023, so he's recently missed noteworthy time. Judge still has plenty of high-end production in front of him, but a stint or two on the DL with a little slide in production, opens the door for Alvarez.
Ultimately, if Alvarez maintains his current standard of production while exceeding 40 home runs for the first time, for a playoff bound Astros team, he can win this year's AL MVP.