The Northern Lights are normally visible as far south as Canada and across the northern tips of the United States, but on Thursday an unusually powerful, X9-rated solar flare produced two large coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that are expected to reach Earth today and tomorrow, expanding the field of the aurora into Vermont, New Hampshire, and northern Massachusetts, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center.
A geomagnetic storm watch has been issued from Friday to Sunday night ahead of these two eruptions. "At this level, it may be possible under the best circumstances for northern New Englanders to glimpse the aurora along the northern horizon well outside of city lights and under clear skies," said Shawn Dahl, a meteorologist with the SWPC.
Even though the sun sets earlier, the best time to catch a glimpse of the lights is between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., and this weekend it's looking like less cloud cover Saturday and Sunday nights. Right now, the best spots for viewing will be anywhere in Vermont, New Hampshire, and the northern portions of Massachusetts (to roughly Route 2).
It might prove tough to catch the aurora Friday night with the increasing clouds expected later tonight ahead of the arrival of a cold front packing scattered showers. If you give it a shot, temperatures around midnight should be in the mid-50s. Showers should end by late morning on Saturday, making for Saturday night and Sunday night the better bet to catch the shimmering display.
Saturday night should present a great chance to catch the lights with clear skies as high pressure settles in -- albeit colder with temperatures around midnight likely in the upper 40s across Northern New England and the low 50s in Mass.
Another front will make a pass into New England late Sunday, so expect more clouds to fill the skies, spoiling the chances of catching the lights for New Englanders.
If you aren't able to see anything, don't worry. Scientists say the Northern Lights are not always visible to the naked eye. But your cellphone is a great fill-in and can actually capture the full beauty of the flickering ribbons in the sky with just a few clicks.
"Aim it up toward the sky and take a shot. You may be surprised when you check your phone later to find some beautiful shots," said Brent Gordon, a scientist with the SWPC.
That's because cellphones are much more attuned to visible wavelengths, making them "much better than our eyes at capturing the light," he explained.
"We've seen cellphone photos from as far away as south Texas, so it is possible."
And even with the increased chances of activity with ideal weather conditions, the Northern Lights sometimes simply don't come out to dance or you just need some patience. The Space Weather Prediction Center analyzes a multitude of variables when it comes to putting out a potential for Northern Light activity.
"Trying to figure out whether a CME will actually strike Earth, graze us, or completely miss us is extremely difficult. The sun is 93 million miles away and trying to grasp any Earth impact is not easy," Dahl added.
When the SWPC issues a geomagnetic storm watch, that means they don't know the orientation yet of the CME. It's when the CME reaches about 1 million miles from Earth is when they get a clearer picture of what they can expect. At that point, forecasters may issue a geomagnetic warning, depending on the magnetic energy, strength, and direction at that point.
"Even though a G3 watch may verify and confirm, it does not mean the CME was that intense when it was passing Earth during the prime viewing window," Dahl said.
A strong X7.1-class solar flare was observed on Wednesday, causing a CME that was expected to produce a strong display of the Northern Lights in New England Thursday night, although the more northern reaches of the region were able to get better views.
A second, more powerful solar flare -- the strongest observed since 2017 -- was observed on Thursday and the SWPC subsequently issued G3/strong geomagnetic storm watches for Friday through Sunday "due to a pair of coronal mass ejections that are anticipated to arrive."
Coronal mass ejections are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the sun's corona that cause intense geomagnetic storms when the CMEs reach Earth, projecting the auroras farther south than usual.
"Flares of this magnitude are generally uncommon," Dr. Ryan French, a solar astrophysicist at the National Science Foundation's National Solar ObservatoryCQ in Boulder, Colo., said of the X9 flare.
Solar flares are rated much like earthquakes. The smallest ones are B-class, followed by C, M, and X, the largest. Similar to the Richter scale, each letter represents a tenfold increase in energy output. Within each letter class, there is also a finer scale from 1 to 9 -- meaning a X9 flare is the strongest possible.
"We are in the grips of solar maximum of Solar Cycle 25," Dahl said. "Solar cycles are an average 11-year period" where the sun goes from a "minimum of activity to a maximum and back to a minimum."
This swing happens because the sun flips its magnetic poles around every 11 years due to constant magnetic turmoil within. We essentially won't know when the peak of activity will be determined until after the fact, but the increased activity over the past six months has given scientists confidence that we're close.
"2024 has proven to be a very active year for aurora viewing. Current thinking is that we can anticipate space weather storms for the remainder of this year and possibly through 2025," Dahl.