Happy holidays, everyone. With the majority of fantasy leagues coming to a close this week, thankfully we can use the festivities to hide our sorrows. For those of us who didn't make the finals, our festivities might have started early!
Week 17 is the most exciting week of the season and the most important to make the right lineup decisions. Last week, we nailed Jaxon Smith-Njigba (eight receptions, 95 yards, TD) and Jameson Williams (five receptions, 143 yards, TD). We also called out Calvin Austin III (four receptions, 65 yards), who had a solid performance, only missing out on Brenton Strange.
This week, we are back with four more receivers. Since we are primarily targeting teams in the finals as well as DFS lineups, these predictions will target higher-value players. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is your Week 17 WR Smash Starts.
Please don't fade Collins heading into the final week of the year. Last week was fairly disappointing, finishing with seven receptions for 60 yards. This wasn't his first disappointing performance, having only 77 yards since the bye week.
This week, the Texans take on a Ravens team that has bled fantasy points to the position all year. Now that Tank Dell is out for the season (really hope he has a smooth and speedy recovery), Collins is the only show in town. With only Dalton Schultz as a reliable pass-catcher, Collins should be fed.
Needless to say, I don't see a revenge game coming for the recently claimed Diontae Johnson. However, I am not scared of the Ravens focusing all their attention on Collins. After all, Ja'Marr Chase without Tee Higgins had 11 receptions, 264 yards, and three scores. Even though C.J. Stroud and Collins aren't Joe Burrow and Chase, they are very good.
I expect Collins to easily surpass double-digit targets, and come away with at least five receptions, 100 yards, and a score.
If you have followed my calls for the last two weeks, you'll know where I'm heading with this one. When a team is facing the Bears and has a talented second WR, they tend to have a great game. Last week, this was showcased by Jameson Williams having 143 yards and a score.
The Bears lead the league in single high coverage, meaning they have one safety deep. As a result, when the safety plays closer to the top target, it opens up more space for the secondary option.
I'm taking a shot here and saying that what we've seen from JSN in the last few weeks will make him the primary. As a result, Metcalf having man coverage is a perfect recipe for big plays.
Metcalf did manage to score a touchdown last week; however, all fantasy managers are probably wondering what happened to the old Metcalf. I expect him to return to his top-tier fantasy finishes this week.
If you have Harrison and are in the finals, it's likely because the rest of your team has carried the load. The "surefire" prospect has been very disappointing this season. Most notably, he has been horrific at attacking the ball in the air and outmuscling smaller corners. Well, this is a perfect matchup for him to correct these errors.
Harrison is primed for a big game just in time to push your team over the edge. The Rams have been mediocre at defending the deep ball all year. They are tied for eighth in the league with 24 20+ yards receiving touchdowns allowed.
Since the Cardinals are likely putting star running back James Conner on ice for the rest of the season, this is the Trey McBride and Harrison show. Since McBride will play closer to the line of scrimmage and over the middle, I expect Harrison will see a healthy share of targets outside.
I'm calling for Harrison to lead the team in receiving yards for only the second time this season.
I'll be honest, this is a tougher player to predict. With Michael Penix Jr. only having one start, it's hard to tell what a road game in prime time will bring. However, I'm a massive Penix fan and have full faith he will come through this week.
If you have only checked the box score, Penix likely didn't stand out last week. However, watching the game and hearing film experts break it down, there was a lot to like. Penix managed to throw with enough velocity and accuracy to find tight windows and demonstrate the confidence to make any throw on the field.
Last week, the QB change led to Mooney leading the team in receptions and yards (five receptions, 82 yards). Considering that the Falcons had two interceptions returned for touchdowns, passing yards came at a premium.
This week, they face a Commanders team that has gotten better against the pass over the second half of the season. They are susceptible to big plays, allowing Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Calvin Ridley, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine to all average 20 or more yards per reception over their last three games.
I am very excited to watch what Penix can do in prime time, and I am predicting a deep shot to Mooney to be the cherry on top of this fantasy finals week.