You can read about how (and why) I'm betting the 2 College Football Playoff semifinal games here. Below are my best bets for the action this upcoming weekend. We'll have Penn State facing Notre Dame in the first semifinal game on Thursday, followed by Ohio State and Texas on Friday.
(As always, the best price at the time of publication is listed in parentheses, but shop around at any of your preferred sports betting apps.)
All odds via DraftKings
So far, Ohio State has taken 81% of the bets on the spread and 76% of the bets on the point total at DraftKings. Consider this: What would the spread of this game have been prior to the start of the Playoff? Texas likely would have been favored. As such, this becomes a quintessential case of profile vs. eye test. On paper, this is an even matchup. So, do we trust the 12-plus data points we have for both of these teams, or do we operate off the 2 most recent data points and ignore what came before them? In the case of the Buckeyes, I think there's value in the latter because I don't think Vegas has caught up to how much better Ohio State is playing. The 2 Playoff wins thus far have featured legitimate schematic changes from Ohio State -- more Cover 2, more counter, more Jeremiah Smith -- that have not only caught opponents off guard but fully maximized the talent on the roster. Meanwhile, Texas has let consecutive passing games chew it up and given up 55 combined points. I think Ohio State could run away with this game, but this feels like the safest bet to make. There will be points. I anticipate Ohio State jumping out to an early lead and forcing Texas to put the football in the air. Caleb Downs is playing closer to the line while Jordan Hancock has drifted back in the secondary, allowing Downs to be a terror around the box. Ohio State (1.9 yards per carry allowed in the CFP) has the tools to stop the Texas ground game, which looked awesome in the first round and disappointing in the quarterfinals. Ohio State is plus-35 in the first quarter on the scoreboard and is outgaining its opponents 11.2 yards per play to 2.0 during the CFP. Given what we've seen from Texas defensively when it has had to play competent offenses, I like Ohio State's chances to once again put up early points.
It'll be a low-scoring game between 2 teams that want to run the football and control the tempo. I like Penn State in the game, but the Jeremiyah Love element -- will he look like himself after practicing all week with a massive brace over his knee? -- gives me some pause there. I have loved Notre Dame all season, but the offense has been disappointing so far through its first 2 games in the CFP. Remove the 98-yard Love run from the Indiana game and Notre Dame averaged 4.5 yards per play. Seventeen of Notre Dame's 23 points against Georgia came in 54 seconds between the end of the second and the start of the third quarters. This hasn't been an outright dominant run on a down-to-down basis; Notre Dame has pounced on mistakes. Penn State is significantly more buttoned up than Georgia is, and Notre Dame won't have as much of an athletic advantage as it had in the Indiana game. Love is expected to play, but so is Penn State edge Abdul Carter. Carter's shoulder injury, in theory, shouldn't affect his explosiveness or his twitchiness as much as Love's knee issue. He just looked clunky in the limited practice footage available from throughout the last week and I'm worried that if he's not able to break of some of those field-flipping plays that Notre Dame has relied on, things get really tight for an offense that can't drop back and consistently move the ball with the pass (66th in yards per dropback). Penn State's defense ranks sixth nationally in adjusted EPA per play, per Game on Paper. It'll be just the third game all season that Notre Dame has played against a defense that ranks in the top 20 in that particular metric. The others -- Indiana (fifth) and NIU (11th) -- allowed 41 combined points and 5.3 yards per play. (Remove that single Love run in the first round, the output becomes 34 total points and 4.6 yards per play.)