NASA issues update on "city-killer" asteroid's chances of hitting Earth

By Theo Burman

NASA issues update on "city-killer" asteroid's chances of hitting Earth

NASA has increased the chances of a "city-killing" asteroid colliding with Earth in their latest update, with the probability of impact rising to 2.6 percent.

Previously space agencies had said there was a 2.2 percent chance of impact, but that changes to the prediction would occur as the asteroid nears the planet.

Newsweek contacted the European Space Agency for more information on the asteroid's approach via email.

The YR4 asteroid is currently the most dangerous space object near Earth, according to NASA, and its impact on the planet would have the same power as a nuclear bomb. While the chances of an impact remain relatively low, contingencies will need to be put in place in the event those chances rise.

In the latest impact risk assessments from NASA, the agency predicted that there was a 1 in 38 chance, or 2.6 percent, that the YR4 asteroid would hit the Earth.

Last week, The European Space Agency said that the chances of impact were 1 in 45, or 2.2 percent, meaning there has been an increase in the probability of collision within the scientific community.

Should the asteroid collide with Earth, scientists estimate that it would release energy equivalent to that of a nuclear bomb, causing significant destruction within a 30-mile radius.

If an impact were to occur, the projected date would be December 22, 2032, at approximately 2 p.m. UTC.

Experts say that 2024 YR4 is most likely to land in the ocean rather than a densely populated region. According to Syfy's website, the asteroid's potential impact zone spans the Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, and South Asia.

While a direct landfall in a major city would be catastrophic, an ocean impact would likely mitigate widespread human casualties but could still trigger tsunamis or other secondary effects.

Robert Massey, deputy executive director of the Royal Astronomical Society, told Newsweek: "I'm not really concerned at all. It's the kind of thing that should concern policymakers and astronomers, particularly, whose job it is to track these things and refine orbits. The odds are very, very low and as observations get better, it's very likely that the probability will drop to zero, so I don't think the public should be unduly concerned."

The European Space Agency is supplying regular updates on the asteroid's movements. It is not expected to near the Earth until 2032.

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