Orlando Magic forward Paolo Banchero is an intriguing prop target in his first game back from an oblique injury. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
The Orlando Magic are expected to get Paolo Banchero back in action on Friday night after missing most of the season with an oblique injury.
Banchero had been slated to return either Thursday or Friday, but he sat out yesterday's loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, where Orlando scored just 89 points.
Now, the Magic find themselves as home underdogs against the Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
This is a big matchup in the Eastern Conference standings, as Milwaukee is just one game back of the Magic for the No. 4 seed.
With Banchero likely back, how should we bet on this matchup?
Here's a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Friday night battle.
Milwaukee Bucks wing Gary Trent Jr. is shooting the ball at a high clip right now, hitting 47.0 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc since the start of December, including a 4-for-4 showing in the Bucks' last game.
Trent has made multiple shots from deep in 11 of his 16 games over that stretch, averaging over two makes on just over five attempts per game. Orlando is a tough defense, but Trent should get some easy looks playing alongside Giannis, Dame and Khris Middleton tonight. He went 2-for-4 from 3 in the first meeting between these teams this season.
Banchero is making his return from an oblique injury, and he's expected to be on a minutes limit tonight against the Bucks.
Despite the minutes limit, Banchero should be able to get all of the shots he wants with Franze Wagner, Jalen Suggs and Moe Wagner all banged up for Orlando. The Magic have one of the worst offenses in the NBA, so they'll gladly welcome Banchero back into action.
This season, Paolo is averaging 29.0 points per game across five games, putting up at least 15 points in all of those matchups.
Orlando has been an under machine as of late, improving to 24-15 on UNDERs this season heading into the second night of a back-to-back.
The UNDER is 5-2 in that spot for the Magic this season, and they've failed to clear 210.5 points in eight straight games.
Even with Banchero likely back, this offense is still just 27th in the NBA this season. On the defensive end, the Magic have the size to deal with Antetokounmpo, and they come into this game with the best scoring defense in the NBA - as well as ranking No. 2 in defensive rating.
The Bucks should have their trio of Dame, Giannis and Khris Middleton on Friday, but I can't take the OVER with Orlando constantly struggling to break 100 points this season.
Pick: UNDER 210.5 (-112)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.