Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management argues that AI could be the start of a new "super cycle" in the tech industry. Previous cycles included the rise of personal computers in the 1980s, networking in the 1990s, wired internet in the 2000s, and mobile internet in the 2010s, leading to the cloud era. However, software and internet experts Kash Rangan and Eric Sheridan highlight a key difference: this time, companies are linking AI investments directly to revenue generation, providing a financial safety net that was absent in past cycles.
Since the launch of ChatGPT by OpenAI in early 2023, the industry's focus has shifted from software to AI hardware and infrastructure. AI infrastructure companies have collectively added nearly $6 trillion to their market capitalization since Q1 2023. Before large-scale AI automation becomes commonplace -- MIT economist Daron Acemoglu estimates this will take more than a decade -- AI infrastructure is expanding into areas such as utilities, energy, internet, and industrials. Interestingly, companies in these sectors that support AI development have posted returns rivaling those of traditional AI firms.
The growing demand for AI-driven data centers is also driving investments in the energy and utilities sectors. Goldman Sachs analysts Carly Davenport and Alberto Gandolf expect AI adoption to drive a surge in electricity demand not seen in decades. However, whether AI's growth will align with energy infrastructure investments remains uncertain due to regulatory constraints and supply chain limitations in the utilities sector. Even if necessary investments materialize, their full benefits may take years to reach AI companies.
Read more about these developments by accessing 30 Most Important AI Stocks According to BlackRock and Beyond the Tech Giants: 35 Non-Tech AI Opportunities.
Some investors remain cautious, fearing an AI bubble similar to the dot-com crash of the early 2000s. However, current data suggests that AI valuations are far more grounded than those of the dot-com era. At the height of the dot-com bubble, software firms traded at price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 132x, compared to a five-year average of 37x in 1999. In contrast, in 2023, even the biggest AI stocks had P/E ratios around 39x, with a five-year average of 40x. These figures suggest that AI valuations are not overinflated, reinforcing investor confidence in AI's long-term potential.
AI companies are increasingly targeting multi-trillion-dollar valuations, comparable to today's largest software and internet firms. Over the past decade, tech giants have scaled their businesses to unprecedented levels, combining billions of users, hundreds of billions in revenue, and tens of billions in net income. Today, a handful of firms account for 80% of the valuation of the Fortune 500. These companies dominate industries such as smartphones, e-commerce, cloud computing, and software-as-a-service (SaaS), all of which AI is poised to disrupt. As a result, these firms are aggressively incorporating AI into their business strategies to maintain market leadership.
Some investors worry that AI firms could overshadow software companies, impacting long-term valuations. The price-to-sales (P/S) ratio for software stocks, which peaked in 2021, is now at an all-time low. Slower earnings growth has also contributed to negative sentiment in the sector. Coatue's research shows that over the next twelve months, only 1% of SaaS companies expect 30% earnings growth, down from 30% during the SaaS boom. However, as human-machine interaction shifts towards natural language processing and generative AI, software companies that successfully integrate AI into their platforms are likely to thrive.
As inflation cools, rate hikes ease, and prospects for a soft economic landing improve, AI's macroeconomic outlook remains strong. AI is now the primary driver of future earnings growth in the S&P 500. According to Coatue's projections, AI-linked stocks are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of nearly 20% over the next three years, outperforming non-AI stocks by approximately 14%. Additionally, 40% of future tech sector earnings are expected to be fueled by AI advancements. All available data points to a bright future for AI investments, with its influence extending far beyond traditional tech firms. As companies continue integrating AI into their operations, productivity and economic growth are set to accelerate, making AI one of the most transformative forces in modern history.
For this article, we selected AI stocks by combing through a note on the AI industry by Coatue Management. These stocks are also popular among other hedge funds. Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter's strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 275% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 150 percentage points (see more details here).
A close-up of a group of technicians working on complex data center systems.
Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 91
Vertiv Holdings Co (NYSE:VRT) designs, manufactures, and services critical digital infrastructure technologies and life cycle services for data centers, communication networks, and commercial and industrial environments. The report for the third quarter of 2024 signals the company's financial growth as net sales reported were $2,074 million, 19% higher than the third quarter of the prior year. Also, the operating profit was $372 million, showing an increase of 48% from the third quarter of the prior year. Adjusted operating margin was 20.1%, showing an increase of 310 basis points compared to the third quarter of the prior year. This demonstrates strong business performance, with the company seeing solid growth in both sales and profits, along with healthy demand for its products. The company's expansion of the global liquid cooling portfolio with the announcement of two new high-capacity coolant distribution units to support AI applications is a development worthy of investor attention as well.
Overall, VRT ranks 12th on our list of Coatue's most important AI stocks. While we acknowledge the potential of VRT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for a stock that is more promising than VRT but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
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Disclosure: None. This article is originally published at Insider Monkey.