There is an anonymous commenter who wanted to be a troll about my prediction track record and where I was wrong about technology.
My writing that years ago that emdrive and Mach Effect propulsion researchers made and that nuclear fusion startups could succeed were not predictions with specific claims and time frames.
There were articles where I wrote and repeated the claims and forecasts made by the companies or technologists. I would say that XYZ company has a roadmap to achieving something. This is like saying SLS (Space Launch System) got funded and first planned to launch in 2016. IF I do not
Nuclear Fusion and Predictions
6 minutes into this video from a few years ago, I say that NONE of the nuclear fusion startups or projects have lit up light bulbs like the 1951 nuclear fission reactor.
I say that nuclear fusion has potential to eventually be a radical improvement in energy generation. However, there is not limits to the funds for research and technology development.
However, there are many challenges to get to net energy generation and challenges to get to commercial energy production and challenges to get the supply chain scaled up. The Deuterium-tritium burning systems would need to scale up the tritium availability.
I am not predicting nuclear fusion will generate power for the grid at even one gigawatt of constant power before 2035. It is not impossible that this could happen but it is not a 50%+ chance.
There are many interesting and worthwhile companies.
The nuclear fusion companies are still getting funded and they could eventually succeed. They are generating nuclear reactions.
The Fusion Industry Association (FIA) released its latest annual report, The Global Fusion Industry in 2024, in July 2024.
Total investment in the fusion industry has reached over $7.1 billion, with an additional $900 million in new funding since the previous year.
Government funding increased significantly, rising by 57% in 12 months to $426 million.
Notable investments include $100 million for Xcimer, $90 million for SHINE Technologies, and $65 million for Helion.
Fusion Industry Growth and Employment. The survey included responses from 45 private fusion companies, up from 43 in the previous year.
Employment in the private fusion sector has grown substantially, with over 4,000 people now employed worldwide.
89% of respondents anticipate fusion providing electricity to the grid by the end of the 2030s, with 70% expecting this milestone by the end of 2035.
Other things where more money was spent and not much useful results:
$500+ billion on the F-35 program and planes.
$26 billion has been spent on the SLS program and it has only had one flawed test flight. There was about $11 billion on the Constellation program which was basically the same as the goal of SLS.
I have said for energy, if you just want safe programs that will get guaranteed good results, then just fund molten salt nuclear fission or advanced nuclear fission projects. You can also just continue to scale up and improve solar and fixed battery energy storage.
What is a Prediction?
A prediction on the public platforms is a statement about a future event or outcome that specifies:
The Event - A clear, unambiguous description of what will happen, including all relevant parameters (e.g., "The temperature in Tokyo on July 1, 2025, will exceed 30°C").
The Resolution Criteria - Explicit, objective criteria by which the prediction will be judged as true or false. This includes:
Source of Truth - A reliable, publicly accessible source or method for verifying the outcome after the event (e.g., "Data from the Japan Meteorological Agency's official records").
Time Frame - A specific date or time period by which the outcome must be resolved (e.g., "The measurement must be taken at exactly 12:00 PM JST on July 1, 2025").
Falsifiability - The prediction must be structured such that it can be definitively proven true or false based on the resolution criteria.
This means:
The criteria must not be open to interpretation.
There should be no ambiguity in how the outcome is measured or reported.
I have written over 35,000+ articles. Almost all of the articles were not predictions. If you find over 3500 articles with issues around predictions, then let me know.
There were times that I have made predictions like when I predicted when Canada would reach particular population levels. I usually tag the articles with predictions. But I also repeated predictions made by others like Ray Kurzweil or Bill Gates.
Here is a list of public predictions that resolved in 2024.
In November 8, 2025, I predicted that Tesla share price would reach $450 within 90 days. This happened as the stock price doubled. It has since pulled back to $379.
Controversial Technology and Science
I still believe LK99 and room temperature superconductors are worth investigating but the work is poorly funded. There are many areas where I disagree with capital allocation. I think more money should and more open minded efforts should be placed on areas of interesting physics. However, I know that poorly funded efforts where the scientists are ostrasized is areas with slow progress.
There is still efforts into investigating LK99 and the room temperature superconductors. But the amounts being spent and the number of researchers involved is tiny.
Global climate change funding is about $150 billion per year and emission have not peaked. The new AI data center boom will cause energy production to vastly increase.
There is talk and commitments for climate change programs to reach $300 billion per year by 2035. This seems to be an ineffective mass of useless corruption.