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Yet again, market studies requested by the Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission argue awarding a license to a Cedar Rapids casino would unleash a cannibal.
One study, by Minneapolis-based Marquette Advisors estimates the Cedar Crossing casino would pull in $118 million in adjusted gross revenues annually by 2028. More than $6.7 million would be distributed each year to local nonprofits.
But a $68 million chunk of that revenue would come at the expense of existing casinos through the dreaded scourge of cannibalization. That includes a $34 million in annual revenue snatched from Riverside Golf & Casino Resort by 2029, a 26 percent slice of its revenue. Meskwaki and the Isle of Waterloo also take sizable hits.
A second study, by New Orleans-based Innovation Group, found Cedar Crossing would pull in $116 million in yearly revenue, but a $55.7 portion would come through cannibalization, mostly from East Central Iowa casinos in Riverside and Waterloo.
So, now begins the guessing game. Will most Racing and Gaming Commission members greet Cedar Crossing as a source of new revenues or reject it as a revenue thief that would hobble existing facilities. In two previous unsuccessful licensing bids, cannibalization loomed large.
And that's just one set of rapids Cedar Crossing must survive.
The Legislature returns next week, and there's a very real chance lawmakers could swiftly approve an extended moratorium on new casino licenses snuffing out Cedar Rapids' hopes before the commission votes up or down on Feb. 6.
There's also an effort to declare Linn County ineligible for a license. Riverside CEO Dan Kehl and his allies argue faulty ballot language in the second Linn County gambling referendum renders the vote null and void.
All the fun has been sucked out of this casino chase. Once, it was an all-hands-on-deck push for a major downtown casino development in the wake of the flood of 2008.
Now, it's a business transaction. Other Iowa communities benefit from gambling bucks. It's Cedar Rapids' turn to get a slice of that pie. Fork it over.
Not even city leaders sound stoked.
"I'm not a gambler. Never bought a scratch ticket. So, this isn't my cup of tea," said City Council member Ashley Vanorny last month as the council approved a casino development agreement.
"What I'm really looking for again is that destination. I don't see it in this. This looks like a big-box store to me," said Vanorny, not a fan.
"I'm not a gambler, except once in a while, once a year, I (play) a penny slot machine," said Council member Scott Olson, who travels annually to Las Vegas. He supports the Cedar Crossing project.
Council member Dale Todd goes to Diamond Jo in Dubuque to count Linn County license plates, not for gambling.
"This will not be the economic savior that some people pretend it's going to be. But look at it as an option for people," said Todd, who also backs the project.
So nobody gambles. But we want a casino.
Mayor Tiffany O'Donnell argued, correctly, the debate over whether to seek a casino license is long over.
"I'd like to say the horse has left the barn on this, and a lot of work has gone into this development agreement. And the 8 percent (for nonprofits) is absolutely a game-changer."
Will the commission change its game, approve a license, shrug at cannibalization and see value in new competition?