Following North Texas women's soccer's 2-1 loss against Incarnate Word on Aug. 14, fans on X started mulling over firing longtime head coach John Hedlund.
In a post on X, one fan praised Hedlund's career commitment to the program but argued he "has taken the program as far as he can." The fan mentioned Hedlund's 0-7 record in NCAA Tournament appearances and declining success against Big 12 opponents.
At the time of writing, the Mean Green are 3-3, and talk of firing Hedlund has died down. However, the idea, albeit exaggerated, brings up a recurring sports dilemma about how a program's consistent success can seem meaningless if the team appears to stop improving and plateau.
When a coaching change is necessary, it often becomes apparent through increased losses, fan and media backlash or an internal team culture issue. Until these signs appear, teams and fans should be more patient with a consistently winning but not advancing team because a future under new leadership is always more uncertain.
The team posted a graphic to X on June 16 highlighting Hedlund's 30 consecutive winning seasons, a feat three other Division I women's soccer head coaches - Anson Dorrance, Steve Swanson and John Daly - have accomplished. Hedlund and Dorrance are the only head coaches who have achieved the milestone with one program without any losing seasons.
Daly's career is the most similar to Hedlund's. From 1987 to 2017, he led William & Mary to 413 wins in 31 seasons, including 22 NCAA Tournament appearances and a .683 winning percentage. By the end of the 2024 season, Hedlund scored 400 wins in 30 seasons with seven NCAA Tournament appearances and a .698 win percentage.
Daly retired after his first losing season (8-10-2) in 2017. Since then, the Tribe has had one winning season in seven years and has not returned to the NCAA Tournament. Even with Daly's involvement in the next hire, with as head coach Julie Shackford played for Daly from 1984 to 1987, a coaching change may not guarantee success.
Replacing a head coach means replacing a team's leading strategist and, at times, one of its best recruiters. Across college sports, this can mean an exodus of players transferring out and recruits decommitting to a program. Unless the team is already a nationally recognizable brand, retooling often leads to regression.
James Madison football is a recent example of this trend. In 2024, former head coach Curt Cignetti left for Indiana. Meanwhile, 13 players and six coaches followed suit.
Cignetti's Dukes made three semifinals and one championship game in the Football Championship Subdivision from 2019 to 2021. After joining the Football Bowl Subdivision, JMU ranked as high as No. 18 in The Associated Press poll and would have competed for two conference championships. An NCAA transition rule requiring new FBS teams to sit out of postseason games for two years barred the team from both conference championship games.
In 2024, after Cignetti's departure, JMU finished 9-4 and missed the Sun Belt Conference title game. The team achieved its first bowl win but still regressed slightly from its 11-2 record the year before.
North Texas recently faced a similar situation when it fired football head coach Seth Littrell after the 2022 season. His 44-44 record falls short of Hedlund's nearly .700 win percentage with women's soccer, but Littrell's seven seasons account for six of the 15 bowl game appearances in program history.
It is too early to tell how current head coach Eric Morris' tenure will differ from Littrell's. Through the 2024 season, Morris is 11-14 and coached last season's team in a 30-28 loss to Texas State in the SERVPRO First Responder Bowl. Winning a bowl game or an American Conference title is the next step he needs to "raise the bar" that Littrell had set.
Outside pressure, like criticism from fans or negative press, can also make a team's situation feel worse than it is. Outsiders see a specific result and want it replicated or built upon. North Texas does not have a "hardcore" fan base, but like any university, its following of alumni, athletic department donors and locals want the best from its teams.
Winning is already a challenging goal, getting tougher in modern college sports. Rosters change yearly through transfers and graduates. Strong seasons can work against a team if they result in players leaving for bigger programs or brand opportunities.
Hedlund should run no risk of being fired unless the team faces a significant decline. In that case, his tenure likely ends in retirement, similar to Daly. This hopefully allows Hedlund and the program to cooperate in hiring his successor. It is a more respectful resolution and helps ensure a higher level of continuity.
The alternative of releasing a winning coach has proven too volatile to risk. If an organization's next head coach has to inherit a higher level of success and fails to match or build upon it, criticisms get louder and the eventual rebound takes longer.