Now is the time to grab your sweaters and rainboots, as a taste of fall is in the forecast next week. As storms come to an end, cooler air moves in this weekend. A large area of low pressure sitting to our northwest in the Pacific will send waves of energy into our area on Friday and again on Monday. Each of these waves will drop temperatures, with the final main low moving in on Wednesday. Highs will be in the 80's over the weekend and 70's by Monday. This will be roughly ten degrees below average. Low temperatures will be in the 50's at the Reno Airport and 40's in outlying areas. The Sierra could also fall below freezing. Flurries can't be ruled out in the mountains as the low moves in.
Reno usually sees its first 45 degree low temperature on September 8th , and first 75 degree high on September 5th. Meteorological fall begins September 1st. This is when data typically starts to cool down according to climate.
The jet stream is made up of troughs and ridges when it is the most active and can be horizontal and straight when it is calmer. This is called zonal flow. Oftentimes, there is a low over the west coast when there is a ridge over the eastern United States and vice versa. A large area of low pressure will drop down from the north next week, dropping temperatures by ten to fifteen degrees. Troughs are typically associated with cooler weather and ridges with warmer weather. The bigger the dip in the jet stream the bigger the cool down. Where the low comes from matters as well.
It will be breezy this weekend, but thankfully wind speeds will be light in the morning for the balloon festival. It will be chilly at the time of dawn patrol and launch, with temperatures in the 50's. It will be hazy as well. It will be breezy each afternoon this weekend, but it won't be a huge wind event. Wind gusts will be in the mid to upper 20's. The center of the low this weekend will travel over the Pacific Northwest, leaving us with dry southwesterly flow underneath it. As the low moves onshore, the monsoonal moisture will retreat backwards over the weekend.
The moisture won't be gone for long, with more moving in on Tuesday. Along with cooler temperatures, there is a 20% chance for rain on Tuesday, 30% chance on Wednesday, and a 30% chance on Thursday. There will be enough moisture to work with and the low will provide the lift we need to get the air to rise and showers to form. Next week will be a good time to read, watch a movie, and drink coffee. It will be cold in the morning as well. Bundle up on your way to work, as 50's are likely. Models are in agreement and there is moderate confidence that fall weather is right around the corner. Tuesday is still several days away so the forecast could change a little bit. Stay tuned for more weather updates. The bulk of the rain will fall north of I-80.
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