UFC 307 roundtable: Where does Alex Pereira go with another big win?

By Alexander K. Lee

UFC 307 roundtable: Where does Alex Pereira go with another big win?

No fighter has seen their stock soar quite like Pereira's over the past few years as he's gone from kickboxing champion to UFC go-to guy with titles in two divisions to his name. This Saturday, he sees a true test of his star power as he defends his light heavyweight belt against the dangerous, but lightly regarded Khalil Rountree in the main event of UFC 307. Should "Poatan" put on another legend-building performance, does another marquee matchup await him?

UFC 307 also sees the return of the polarizing Julianna Peña as she challenges bantamweight champion Raquel Pennington. The immediate implications of this grudge match are clear, but could the result of the co-main event -- and a key undercard matchup between Kayla Harrison and Ketlen Vieira -- also coax women's MMA GOAT Amanda Nunes back into action?

MMA Fighting's Mike Heck, Alexander K. Lee, and Damon Martin ponder these questions ahead of Saturday's card at Delta Center in Salt Lake City.

Martin: Champ-champ status.

That's not the answer Magomed Ankalaev wants to hear as the rightful No. 1 contender in the light heavyweight division, but the reality is Pereira has bailed out the UFC so many times in 2024 that he should get his wish for whatever he wants next and it certainly seems like he's chasing gold in another division. Pereira already stated that he plans to go back down to 185 pounds for some inexplicable reason to challenge Dricus du Plessis for his middleweight title. That actually seems like a bad idea, but if that's what Pereira wants, so be it.

The more interesting challenge lies at heavyweight where Pereira could potentially make Jon Jones put off his retirement for one more fight if he gets through Stipe Miocic at UFC 309. Pereira has to know that facing Jones would be the biggest, most meaningful, and most lucrative fight available to him in the UFC. Outside of Conor McGregor fighting again, Pereira vs. Jones might actually be the most promotable fight the UFC could stage.

There's also a world where Pereira can't keep Jones from calling it a career so he challenges Tom Aspinall instead and there's another marquee matchup in the heavyweight division. Either way, Pereira gets to call his shot and that means either middleweight or heavyweight in his immediate future.

Heck: Whatever the hell he wants.

While it's not as much of a story this time around, Pereira has stepped in to save the UFC again here. With all due respect to Pennington and Peña, that just isn't the main event Salt Lake City is paying for. And as worthy of a challenger as Rountree is, it's Pereira that is -- to quote the legend Jon Anik -- the man with whom this card is built around.

One way or another, this fight is going to be electric. There's no way it will be boring, or bad, or a slog in any way. The many, many fans who complained about the UFC 306 main event between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O'Malley will feel the exact opposite when this fight is over. Either Pereira obliterates Rountree in seven minutes or less to move to 3-0, or we get another absolutely stunning card ender.

My guess is the former, and the options are aplenty. Could Pereira fight Magomed Ankalaev if he's victorious at UFC 308? Yeah, and I'd be down for that one. Would middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis be an option? Sure seems like it. Plus, there's that chance at history, and winning a third belt. I know Jon Jones is saying his fight with Stipe Miocic will likely be his last, but I don't believe that for a second if Pereira wins on Saturday. I'd be willing to bet a couple of weeks worth of Dunkin' coffees that Jones calls Pereira out if they both win. But whatever Pereira, himself, decides to do next, he would get.

Lee: Tommy Aspinall, come on down!

No, Aspinall doesn't bring the historical significance of Jon Jones or Stipe Miocic and yes, Magomed Ankalaev is the rightful challenger at 205 pounds (assuming he beats Aleksandar Rakic, which I am). The problem is that Pereira has as much leverage as anyone right now and he deserves to take advantage of it. That means calling for a heavyweight title opportunity. And that means Pereira vs. Aspinall.

Jones and Stipe, enjoy your little title fight at Madison Square Garden. The atmosphere is going to be electric and if we do see a double retirement, I'll shed a tear or two. I'm not made of stone. But I'm not overly sentimental either and I'll be ready to move on by Sunday morning, which means elevating Aspinall to undisputed status (he's already the No. 1 heavyweight as far as the real rankings are concerned) and setting him up against Pereira, who will be waiting for the call after dispatching Rountree.

The UFC's gears grind more efficiently than ever these days, so Dana White and co. will gratefully give Jones and Miocic their gift basket and send them on their way before booking Pereira vs. Aspinall for sometime in the first half of 2025.

Not to be the turd in the punch bowl right off the bat, but I grow increasingly confident with each passing day that Nunes' #MMARetirement is one that will actually stick. Don't get me wrong, I was with pretty much everyone else when she hung up the gloves 15 months ago (feels longer than that, doesn't it?) in thinking that she was simply taking a well-deserved break while also leaving the door open for new challengers to emerge.

That scenario hasn't exactly played out, with Raquel Pennington -- an opponent Nunes crushed at UFC 224 -- becoming the first post-Nunes champion and Kayla Harrison not making her UFC debut until this past April. Oh, Julianna Peña is still around, too.

The mix just doesn't feel quite right for a Nunes comeback. Not only was Nunes' first fight with Pennington decisive, the two are friends and not in any rush to square off again. Harrison should go after the UFC title with a win Saturday, not chase after an inactive fighter. Oh, Julianna Peña is still around, too.

Then there's the possibility that Ketlen Vieira upsets Harrison, and if that happens? Let's just say that in the jungle, the mighty jungle, "The Lioness" will sleep well tonight.

Martin: A couple of Tetris pieces have to fall in place for Nunes to take another step towards her return to the octagon.

First up, Harrison needs to go full Kennedy Blades and just launch Vieira across the octagon and demolish her -- as most expect the two-time Olympic gold medalist to do. Then Pennington needs to successfully defend her title by dispatching Peña in the co-main event to set up a future fight against Harrison.

You might be thinking wouldn't Peña winning make Nunes more interested after they split a pair of past fights? Wouldn't a trilogy to settle the score with Peña convince Nunes to come back?

Here's the thing: Nunes loathes Peña and never giving her the satisfaction of a third fight probably means more to the women's GOAT than actually beating Peña up again. But playing the long game to set up a potential showdown against a former teammate in Harrison -- assuming she beats Pennington to become champion -- might be just the trick to get Nunes' attention.

Nunes and Harrison were once friends and trained under the same coaches at American Top Team in Florida. Nunes eventually split with the gym and started doing her own thing, but some comments she made about her former team didn't sit well with Harrison. That immediately sparks a rivalry and the potential for a massive fight -- both factors that could play a part in Nunes deciding to come back.

Heck: Directly? Absolutely nothing that happens on Saturday brings Nunes back to the octagon, but momentum likely moves forward towards it happening.

I'm not here to mince words, Ketlen Vieira beating Kayla Harrison would be one of the most shocking results of the year in MMA, and there's a real case it would be the most shocking. Harrison likely runs over Vieira to set her up for the winner of the title fight between Pennington and Peña.

Now, if Pennington wins, she'll likely play the, 'I'm ready for whoever the UFC gives me' card, or directly just say that she's ready for Harrison. What else can she do? If Peña regains the title, she'll call for Nunes -- which will go over so silently, you'll be able to hear a pin drop in the highly elevated arena. I also could see her calling for a rematch with once-again flyweight queen Valentina Shevchenko. Neither will happen, and she'd have no choice but to fight Harrison.

After Harrison gets her shot, then we can revisit.

Heck: Easy, one of the top-5 fighters of all-time -- Jose Freaking Aldo. After completing his previous UFC contract at UFC 301 in May, Aldo elected to remain with the organization. And in his first fight under the new deal, he gets to fight in elevation, in the same place where he was booked in the worst piece of matchmaking in UFC bantamweight history when he lost to Merab Dvalishvili. He should've fought for the belt, end of story.

But I digress.

Aldo now faces Mario Bautista, who is on a nice run, but to go from Jonathan Martinez to Mario Bautista is not the kind of leap up the ladder of the rankings, or name value most were looking for. If Aldo wins, a big fight awaits -- maybe even with the likes of a Cory Sandhagen, or, perhaps, Sean O'Malley. A loss would pretty much put an end to Aldo's hopes to win a second divisional title, and likely lead to a booking against another 135-pounder on a win streak that not a lot of people know about.

Lee: For the sake of all of our sanities, Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson, please beat Joaquin Buckley.

It makes all the sense in the world for Buckley to use that impressive physique of his to wrestle Thompson to the mat for three rounds and leave Salt Lake City with a decision and another absurd callout in hand. Time waits for no man, and the streaking Buckley is on the cusp of becoming a genuine threat to challenge for UFC gold if he beats Thompson, a two-time title challenger.

And that's why Thompson needs to take care of business, so we don't have to hear Buckley call out Belal Muhammad. So we don't have to hear how he's more deserving of a championship opportunity than Shavkat Rakhmonov, Jack Della Maddalena, Sean Brady, Ian Machado Garry, or any other number of talents that are ahead of him in the pecking order. Where they should be.

Thompson is apparently not considering retirement, so win or lose he should be fine. It's the rest of us that might consider taking a break from MMA if we have to hear Buckley deliver another eye-rolling post-fight promo.

Martin: Maybe this ends up as an unpopular answer, but Carla Esparza winning her final fight would be a feel-good moment for UFC 307.

Because she was never the loudest fighter or the flashiest competitor scoring dramatic finishes, Esparza's long list of accomplishments kind of get swept under the rug. But Esparza was a pioneer for the strawweight division after she became the first-ever 115-pound champion for Invicta FC. Injuries to both her and her potential opponents prevented Esparza from defending her belt and she eventually left the all-women promotion to sign with the UFC where she was made the No. 1 seed on season 20 of The Ultimate Fighter, which featured a tournament to crown the company's inaugural strawweight champion.

Esparza won that as well after mauling Rose Namajunas in the finals. She lost the title to Joanna Jedrzejczyk one fight later, but through trials, tribulations, wins and losses, Esparza somehow got back to the belt seven years later when she beat Namajunas again to become a two-time UFC champion.

Heading into UFC 307, Esparza announced her matchup against Tecia Pennington would be the final fight of her career. It's so rare that a former champion like Esparza goes out on a win with a happy memory to leave behind. Esparza getting her hand raised before riding off into the sunset would be the perfect bookend to her Hall of Fame career.

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