The Yankees haven't won a World Series since 2009, you might have heard. The Dodgers and Yankees will meet in the Fall Classic for the first time since 1981, you might have heard.
It is the most-common World Series matchup in MLB history, you might have heard. The Yankees are the underdogs, according to the latest World Series odds. Now, that's something you might not have heard. It's a sentence that isn't written often.
Aaron Judge and the Yankees will have certainly earned it if they end their 14-year title drought by beating the incomparable Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers. The first step toward doing so comes Friday in Game 1 of the World Series in LA.
Yes, the Yankees are underdogs in Game 1 and for the series. Los Angeles is -130 to win the World Series at BetMGM, while the Yankees are +110. BetMGM has the Dodgers in 6 games (+195) as the most probable outcome (34% chance).
As for Game 1, the Dodgers are listed as -125 moneyline favorites at BetMGM. The pitching matchup of Jack Flaherty vs. Yankees' ace Gerrit Cole. The Yankees' moneyline is listed at +105 ($105 bet returns $100) and the total is set at 8.5 (-110).
Let's get to my expert Yankees vs. Dodgers picks and best best for World Series Game 1.
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
I'm not going to overthink this. Game 1 of the World Series features one of the most lopsided pitching matchups I can recall in a Fall Classic.
Jack Flaherty (7.04 ERA in three starts) has been flailing all postseason, save for an out-of-body experience in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Mets.
Can he really contain a Yankees' lineup that is substantially better than the Mets' lineup that battered him in Game 6 of the NLCS? No, he cannot.
I'm taking Flaherty Under 14.5 outs, which means I think he won't finish the fifth inning. Why? All the underlying metrics are bad for Flaherty.
The velocity on his four-seam fastball was down against the Mets (91.4 mph) and he had trouble getting swings-and-misses (just two). Meanwhile, the Yankees were the third-toughest team to get swings and misses against in the regular season (9.6% swinging strike percentage), according to FanGraphs.
Furthermore, Flaherty has given up three homers in 15 1/3 innings this postseason. That is a higher rate than his regular season average of 1.3 HRs/9 innings, per FanGraphs. The Yankees know a little about the long ball.
Finally, Flaherty's biggest trouble inning this postseason has been the third. He's given up five runs in that frame. I'm betting the Yankees chase Flaherty before he completes five innings, which means I also like the Yankees' first five innings moneyline at plus odds at FanDuel.
Again, let's not overthink this. The matchup is reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole vs. Jack Flaherty. I would never tell you to wager your hard-earned money on the latter on a first-five innings moneyline bet. I like the Yankees to win Game 1, but I like this pick better as protection against a late-inning LA rally.
My final Yankees vs. Dodgers World Series Game 1 bet is Shohei Ohtani to steal a base, which is +190 at bet365. Ohtani just registered the first-ever, 50-homer, 50-steal season. He has reached base 23 times in 53 plate appearances postseason and, incredibly, still hasn't stolen a base.
Yankees' catcher Austin Wells is better than he was at throwing out runners. However, Wells still threw out just 20% of runners at second in the regular season, which was fifth-worst among catchers who faced at least 50 stolen base attempts. There's great value in betting Ohtani ending his strange stolen-base drought tonight.
Best odds: -125 at BetMGM
If the Dodgers win Game 1 of the World series it likely will have little to do with their starting pitching. It's been that way all postseason after injuries wrecked their rotation well before the playoffs started.
Dodgers starters are 2-4 with a 6.08 ERA in 11 starts during the playoffs, which speaks to how good both their offense and bullpen have been.
The only team with a higher ERA amongst its starters this postseason was Atlanta, and the Braves only played two Wild Card round games before being eliminated.
Flaherty (1-2, 7.04 ERA) has been a major culprit in their starting pitching woes. The mid-season acquisition was strong in Game 1 of the NLCS, but the Mets battered him to force a Game 6.
No one knows which Jack Flaherty will show up in Game 1. History says it's unlikely he can contain the Yankees' powerful lineup, even at his best.
But it might not matter if Flaherty struggles. The Dodgers can win Game 1 behind an offense that is humming and a loaded bullpen. Los Angeles averaged more than 8 runs per game in the NLCS.
Mookie Betts hit .346 (9-for-26) with two homers (six extra-base hits) and 9 RBI in the NLCS. Shohei Ohtani was Shohei Ohtani (.364, 2 HRs, 6 RBI, 9 BB in NLCS) and yet Tommy Edman (.407, 1 HR, 11 RBI) won NLCS MVP.
As I mentioned, the Dodgers' bullpen knows what to do when given a lead. LA's relievers are 5-0 with a 3.16 ERA despite logging the most innings of any 'pen this postseason.
The bullpen could also be bolstered by the potential return of Alex Vesia, who was left off the ALCS roster due to a rib cage injury.
Another reason the Dodgers can win Game 1 (and the series) is they have the managerial edge. Dave Roberts showed why he's one of the best in baseball by masterfully managing his relievers en route to winning 'bullpen' games in the NLDS and NLCS.
Best odds: +110 at DraftKings
The Yankees can win Game 1 because they have the pitching advantage. Gerrit Cole was limited to 17 starts this year due to various injuries, but the 2023 AL Cy Young winner can certainly limit this potent Dodgers' lineup.
The Yankees paid him $36 million per year to do that in this very scenario. There is recent evidence he can. Cole came through earlier this postseason against Kansas City (7 innings, 1 run, six hits) to help the Yankees advance to the ALCS.
The Yankees can win Game 1 if Cole pitches like that and hands it over to the bullpen, which has also been good (2.56 ERA this postseason).
Speaking of relievers, the Yankees aren't scared of the Dodgers' loaded bullpen. New York beat Cleveland in the ALCS by rallying multiple times late against the best bullpen in the majors, including Emmanuel Clase - arguably the best closer in baseball.
The Yankees got here by bashing 10 homers in the ALCS. The scary part is Aaron Judge is still only hitting .161. Instead, it's been Giancarlo Stanton blasting every fastball he sees to the moon lately.
Stanton hit 4 homers and drove in seven runs against Cleveland to earn ALCS MVP honors. Stanton, who has 11 RBIs this postseason, joined Reggie Jackson as the only Yankees to hit 4 homers in a single season multiple times.
Stanton, a California native, has never faced Flaherty. Teammate Anthony Rizzo is hitting .429 (9-for-21) with three homers and six RBI against Flaherty. Rizzo is dealing with two fractured fingers, but told reporters the time off before the World Series has helped.