When astronomers discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 late last year, not much was mentioned about the probability of it colliding with Earth. Asteroid 2024 YR4 is approximately 150-feet wide and could impact Earth on Dec. 22, 2032, NASA says.
Astronomers initially put the odds of impact around 1 in 83 (1.1%), with the expectation that the odds would decrease as more was discovered about the asteroid, according to Earthsky.org.
Over the last few weeks, however, the odds continued to increase leading to an announcement Tuesday that the odds of a collision were now 1 in 32 (3.1%). According to NASA that is the "highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger."
But just a day later, data collected by NASA led the agency to significantly decrease the probability to 1 in 360 (.2%).
So why do the odds continue to change?
According to a blog post by NASA, astronomers were waiting for the skies to get darker in order to better study and understand the asteroid.
"Ground-based telescopes require dark skies to observe asteroids, which are often very faint. Around the time of a full moon, the sky becomes too bright to detect these faint points of light," reads part of the post.
EarthSky reports that astronomers determine the odds by monitoring the asteroid's movements around the sun. The measurements are then used to determine the asteroid's orbit. As more data is being collected the odds are dropping, as expected when the asteroid was first discovered.
The chances of the moon being impacted by the asteroid are slim as well, coming in around .3%
Astronomers only have a few weeks left to study the asteroid, as it will soon be untraceable until 2028. NASA says the probability of impact will continue to fluctuate as data is collected during that time as there is still uncertainty in the asteroid's trajectory.
The asteroid is approximately 50 million miles away from Earth, EarthSky reports.