17 years breakout done in JAYASWAL NECO for NSE:JAYNECOIND by TechnicalAnalystSucrit


17 years breakout done in JAYASWAL NECO for NSE:JAYNECOIND by TechnicalAnalystSucrit

The Smart Way Research Desk Company Report: Jayaswal Neco Industries Ltd Date: 06 September 2025

About the Company Jayaswal Neco Industries Ltd is an integrated steel and castings manufacturer with operations spanning pig iron, billets, rolled products, alloy steel, and ductile iron pipes. Headquartered in Nagpur, the company owns captive iron ore mines and operates blast furnaces, sinter plants, and steel melting shops. It serves automotive, infrastructure, and engineering sectors, and is undergoing a strategic transformation with digital upgrades, debt restructuring, and brownfield capacity expansion.

1. Core Financials Snapshot (FY23-FY25)

Revenue: ₹59,346 Cr (FY23) → ₹60,009 Cr (FY24) → ₹62,115 Cr (FY25) -- CAGR ~2.3%; stable topline Net Profit: ₹2,100 Cr (FY23) → ₹1,127 Cr (FY24) → ₹2,374 Cr (FY25) -- FY25 up 110%; margin recovery EBITDA: ₹10,264 Cr (FY23) → ₹9,403 Cr (FY24) → ₹10,875 Cr (FY25) -- Margin ~17.5%; resilient EPS: ₹2.16 (FY23) → ₹1.16 (FY24) → ₹2.44 (FY25) -- Up 110%; post-restructuring rebound ROE: ~3.5% (FY25) vs ~1.8% (FY24) -- Improving; still below sector leaders Debt/Equity: ~2.3x (FY25) -- Elevated; NCD servicing pressure persists Dividend: Nil -- Reinvestment priority Total Assets: ₹11,051 Cr (FY25) -- Asset base expanding Promoter Holding: ~74.99% (FY25) -- Stable FII Holding: ~4.2% (FY25) -- Modest foreign interest DII Holding: ~12.6% (FY25) -- Domestic support rising

Verdict: Bad Despite profit rebound, high leverage, weak ROE, and lack of dividend limit financial attractiveness.

2. Strategic Drivers & Business Expansion

Captive Mining: Metabodeli and Chhotedongar mines operational -- Raw material security Brownfield Pellet Plant: Under construction -- Efficiency boost Blast Furnace Overhaul: 84-day shutdown completed -- Long-term productivity gain Product Diversification: Billets, rolled products, alloy steel, DI pipes -- Multi-sector presence Digital Transformation: ERP, automation, and analytics upgrades -- Operational visibility Debt Refinancing: ₹3,200 Cr NCD issued -- Liquidity relief, but high coupon cost

Verdict: Good Strong vertical integration, operational upgrades, and raw material control support long-term competitiveness.

3. FY26 Forecast (Estimated)

Revenue: ₹65,000 - ₹66,500 Cr Net Profit: ₹2,600 - ₹2,800 Cr EPS: ₹2.65 - ₹2.85 ROE: ~4.2% EBITDA Margin: ~18.0% Capex: ₹1,200 - ₹1,400 Cr Free Cash Flow: Negative due to NCD servicing and capex

Verdict: Bad Projected growth is offset by high debt servicing and negative free cash flow, posing liquidity risks.

4. Business Growth Verdict

Revenue CAGR ~2.3%; Profit CAGR ~6.3% (FY23-25) Debt profile elevated; ROE below industry Steel + Castings + Mining = integrated engine Valuation (P/E ~25x FY25) stretched for current return profile

Verdict: Bad Growth potential exists, but financial structure and return metrics remain weak.

5. Final Investment Verdict: WAIT

Jayaswal Neco Industries is a strategically integrated steel player with captive mining and diversified product lines. However, elevated debt, modest ROE, and liquidity pressure from NCD obligations make it a high-risk investment. Entry should be considered only after Q2 FY26 debt servicing and margin trends stabilize.

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