Jon Jones returns to the Octagon after a 20-month layoff for his first heavyweight title defense against former champion Stipe Miocic. The highly anticipated main event at UFC 309 is one of 13 fights that will take place at Madison Square Garden in New York on Saturday night (10 ET on ESPN+ PPV, with early prelims at 6 on Hulu/ESPN+ and prelims at 8 on ESPNEWS/FX/Hulu/ESPN+).
Jones won the title -- which was vacated by Francis Ngannou after a contract dispute with the UFC -- with an efficient first-round submission win over Ciryl Gane at UFC 285 in March 2023. Jones is unbeaten since his disqualification loss in 2009 to Matt Hamill due to illegal elbows.
Miocic, the most decorated heavyweight in the promotion's history, returns to the Octagon for the first time since 2021. In his last fight, he was dethroned via a knockout loss to Ngannou.
In the co-main event, Michael Chandler returns to competition after two years of inactivity to take on former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira (ESPN's No. 3-ranked lightweight) in a rematch. In their first matchup, Oliveira was victorious with a second-round TKO in May 2021.
Andreas Hale spoke to former UFC light heavyweight champion and current ESPN analyst Rashad Evans -- who fought Jones at UFC 145 in 2012 -- to get his perspective on the heavyweight title clash. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight and analysis on the main event and other intriguing bets he likes on the card.
Editor's note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.
How Jones wins: Jon needs to start this fight at that long range where he excels, and just start chipping away using those oblique and teep kicks, the jab and close the distance using his hand fighting that he always does. What's so good about hand fighting is that he does it to make his opponents feel like they have to go. When you feel like you have to go before you're ready, you put yourself in a very bad position to get countered. Once he starts doing that, he will find out quickly what Miocic's game plan will be when he starts having success with that long-range attack.
Jones is known for his creativity when he goes for takedowns. But he doesn't want to get Miocic to the ground right out of the gate because he'll still be fresh and he's a capable wrestler. Jon has never gone five rounds in the heavyweight division. He has done it multiple times at light heavyweight, but this extra weight can be exhausting. So Jones must start this fight methodically, using his long-range weapons to chip away at Miocic before taking him down. From there, he can work in submissions or ground and pound.
How Miocic wins: Miocic needs to understand that operating at that longer range where he's at the end of Jones' reach is a very bad idea. He needs to find a way to get himself in the midrange. And that is usually the most dangerous range, where nobody wants you to hang out. For a guy like Jones, who's very dangerous at chipping you from the outside, at least if you're in midrange, you give yourself a chance to strike back. When I fought Jones, I found myself in that long range all the time, and I found myself starting my techniques to attack from that distance. By the time I got close enough to him, most of my punches were deflected through those long arms.
Miocic will have to use a different kind of punch, not straight punches. He can land some straight punches, but the biggest success against a guy like Jones is landing hooks. Jones does a good job of posting out with his hand, almost like a Heisman Trophy pose, but he has a harder time dealing with hooks. My best success against Jones was landing hooks. Miocic will have to get into that midrange, land some hooks, and look to land from inside the clinch position. On the heels of striking him, it'll make it harder for Jones to strike back because he has those longer arms. So that's how you make those longer arms work against Jones. Once the distance is closed, make Jones work. Miocic wants to keep this fight standing. He can threaten Jones with takedowns. But keep it standing and stay in the midrange, landing hooks and short punches.
X factor: Power differential. Will Jones be able to land the more powerful strikes? We've yet to see Jones' power fully displayed at heavyweight. He's talked about the fact that he's put on some size and added some power. But it will be interesting to see whether he can follow through with what he's saying about landing these big shots and making his punching power something to worry about. If he doesn't have that punching power, it will be tough to keep Miocic from walking him down, which will bring a different kind of fight.
On the flip side, Miocic will have to make him feel his power. When I look back at the fights Jones had trouble in, he got caught with a shot that made him say, "Whoa." Miocic will need to hit him and make him say, "Whoa," because if he doesn't, Jones will walk him down the entire fight. And once he starts walking you down, he will get in his trick bag and start pulling tricks out. Miocic needs to hit him with some good, powerful shots. I'm looking for combinations because that's how you hit Jones. Miocic is a natural heavyweight who has been knocking out naturally big guys his entire career.
Prediction: Jones by decision.
Odds accurate as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.
Over 1.5 rounds, -170. Outside of his first-round win over Gane, Jones' past 10 fights went to Round 3 or the entire distance. On top of that, Miocic has the wrestling to defend takedowns, unlike Gane. Look for Jones to try to use his leg kicks to strike from a distance and work his way into his wrestling. If he gets on top of Miocic early, that could be trouble. However, I don't see it happening. Miocic, coming off a very long layoff, has stayed in shape and has been under the bright lights many times. Do I think he wins this fight? No. Do I think he can survive 7 minutes and 30 seconds? Yes, I do, and that's all a bettor needs out of the former champ.
Fight does not go the distance. This fight will go one of two ways: Either Chandler knocks out OIiveira or Oliveira finishes Chandler inside the distance. Time and time again, Oliveira gets dropped in the first round -- but outside of losing to Islam Makhachev, he was able to come back and get the win. If Chandler drops him, he has to capitalize, or else expect Oliveira to recover and get the finish.
Under 1.5 rounds. Craig has poor striking and relies solely on his jiu-jitsu. He will pull guard, hoping his opponent will follow him to the ground, but anyone with a decent fight IQ will stand back up just to knock Craig down again. Although Nickal is an elite wrestler, we have started to see the power in his hands, so it shouldn't surprise anyone if he gets the knockout early. Look for this fight to go less than 1.5 rounds.
Weidman to win, +105. To my surprise, Weidman is currently the betting underdog, and I think there is tremendous value there. Anders has power but slows down tremendously as the fight goes, and if he can't control the wrestling -- which against Weidman, he will not be able to -- he tends to not have a backup plan. Look for Weidman to dictate the pace and strike early on, and once he catches Anders slowing down, he will transition to his wrestling and take over.