We are raising our 2025 forecast for U.S. GDP growth to 2.1% from 2.0% on slightly stronger consumer spending. We raised our estimates for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in 2Q and 4Q. In both cases, we raised our forecast for spending on goods to 1.6% from 1.2%, with increases to both durables and nondurables. We believe consumers are on a stronger path than our previous 1.2% estimates suggested. Yesterday's big jump in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is significant because "small" businesses account for about half of U.S. private-sector employment. Our quarterly GDP estimates for 2025 are now 1.7%, 1.8 (up from 1.7%), 2.3%, and 2.6% (up from 2.5%). Four indicators driven by a broad array of timely data support our assessment that the economy is healthy and growing. On balance, the indicators may be pointing to slightly softer 4Q growth than our 2.8% estimate, but we remain optimistic about our forecast for a 3% increase in holiday spending based on reports of solid after-Thanksgiving shopping. The rebound in November employment is also a good sign. We are keeping our full-year 2024 GDP estimate at 2.6%. On December 9, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDP Nowcast was estimating 4Q growth of 3.3%. On December 6, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Staff Nowcast for 4Q called for 1.9% growth. The Weekly Economic Index tracked by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is based on 10 daily and weekly indicators of consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. If, for example, an index val