NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Kiko.
1 /2 NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Kiko.
COURTESY NOAA This color-enhanced satellite image shows Category 3 Hurricane Kiko approaching the Central Pacific this morning on a path that will bring it near the Hawaiian islands next week.
2 /2 COURTESY NOAA This color-enhanced satellite image shows Category 3 Hurricane Kiko approaching the Central Pacific this morning on a path that will bring it near the Hawaiian islands next week.
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER The 5-day forecast track for Hurricane Kiko.
COURTESY NOAA This color-enhanced satellite image shows Category 3 Hurricane Kiko approaching the Central Pacific this morning on a path that will bring it near the Hawaiian islands next week.
UPDATE : 11 a.m.
Hurricane Kiko continued moving steadily west-northwest today, intensifying as it approaches the Central Pacific basin.
At 11 a.m. HST, Kiko was about 1, 195 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1, 400 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph and higher gusts, making it a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
The storm is moving west-northwest at about 10 mph, a track expected to continue over the next few days and bring Kiko into the Central Pacific basin by Saturday morning.
The latest five-day forecast track keeps the storm north of the islands through midweek, but nearly the entire state remains within the track's "cone of uncertainty." Maximum sustained winds are expected to drop to below 74 mph by Tuesday as Kiko passes near Hawaii island.
EARLIER COVERAGE Hurricane Kiko continued its steady west-northwest movement today while remaining well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian islands, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
At 5 a.m., Kiko was about 1, 245 miles east-southeast of Hilo and 1, 450 miles east-southeast of Honolulu, with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph and higher gusts. The storm is now classified as a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Forecasters said Kiko is moving west-northwest at about 9 mph, a motion expected to continue for the next few days. While some fluctuations in intensity are possible through Sunday, gradual weakening is forecast by early next week as the system encounters cooler waters.
The storm has hurricane-force winds extending 25 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds extending 70 miles.
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, but the National Weather Service in Honolulu said residents should monitor Kiko's progress.
The latest five-day track has the storm traveling north of the islands on Tuesday and Wednesday but nearly the entire state is in the track's "cone of uncertainty." Kiko's maximum sustained winds are expected to weaken to 60 mph on Tuesday and 40 mph on Wednesday as it passes Oahu.
Weather officials said Kiko could bring heavy rain, dangerous surf and strong rip currents to parts of the islands early next week, but its exact track and intensity remain uncertain. Swells from the storm are forecast to reach east-facing shores Sunday, with surf expected to build to advisory levels Monday and possibly approach warning levels Tuesday if Kiko holds its strength.
Moisture tied to the system is expected to increase showers across the state beginning Sunday, with the potential for heavier downpours and localized flooding from Monday through early Thursday, forecasters said.
They said it is too soon to determine the exact magnitude or location of Kiko's impacts but warned that windward slopes on the Big Island and East Maui could experience the earliest and most significant rainfall.
While Kiko is expected to remain well offshore from the islands, its broad wind field and energy could drive hazardous surf and increase coastal flooding risks -- especially with peak monthly high tides through Sunday, according to the NWS. A coastal flood statement remains in effect for low-lying areas statewide.
By Monday, forecasters said, Kiko will be moving over cooler water and face west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, both of which should weaken the storm.
"The increasingly hostile environment should lead to rapid weakening of the tropical cyclone as it approaches the Hawaiian islands from the east-southeast, " hurricane center forecasters said. Starting around Sunday, they said, "Kiko should convectively sputter while moving very close to the eastern end of the Hawaiian island chain as a weakening tropical storm."
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