Dec 29, 2024; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats guard Brooks Barnhizer (13) moves the ball against Northeastern Huskies guard Harold Woods (10) during the second half at Welsh-Ryan Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-Imagn Images / Matt Marton-Imagn Images
Michigan State continues to rack up wins, now eight in a row for Sparty after a dominant win against Washington at home during the week.
Tom Izzo's group hits the road for Sunday afternoon action against Northwestern, who is reeling after two losses on the road to Penn State and Purdue in Big Ten play. However, the Wildcats pose a stiff defensive threat in hopes of jumpstarting a BIg Ten and scoring a signature win against the Spartans.
Jeremy Fears: The guard has taken full advantage of being the primary ball handler, unlocking the Spartans offense that is humming at the moment. Fears is third in assist rate while also providing a downhill threat that gets to the free throw line at a high clip and shoots 80% from the charity stripe.
Brooks Barnhizer: The veteran forward has become the hub of the Wildcats offense this season, averaging more than 19 points with nine rebounds while providing scoring prowess from both inside and out. He'll be tasked with outplaying an elite Michigan State frontcourt, but Barnhizer has been incredibly effective this season.
Northwestern is a prime regression candidate, and this matchup sets up nicely for the team to not only cover the small spread, but possibly win outright.
The Wildcats play at a prodding tempo and are an elite transition denial defense, which is impactful against a Michigan State team that runs in transition on 21% of its possessions (a top third rate in the nation).
Michigan State is incredibly reliant on getting inside the paint and scoring, including from mid-range, as the team is outside the top 300 in three-point rate and are shooting 28% from deep. However, Northwestern has a disciplined defense that does a solid job on the glass.
The matchup sets up nice for Northwestern and so does some underlying regression for both sides. Michigan State profiles as a team owed about a .06 points per possession increase based on ShotQuality data on defense, and Northwestern is due a .04 points per possession increase on offense.
While Michigan State is playing great basketball, the team was just a two-point underdog at Ohio State last week before a seven point win. Meanwhile, Northwestern returns home after two challenging Big Ten games and is ripe to snap its mini slide with some overdue shooting regression.
PICK: Northwestern +2.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.